Bitwise, a prominent institutional crypto investment firm, has reiterated its bold prediction that Bitcoin will reach $200,000 by the end of 2025, even amidst escalating global trade tensions. This reaffirmation came from Bitwise Chief Investment Officer Matt Hougan in an April 9, 2025, blog post.

Hougan suggests that the unfolding scenario of trade friction, particularly U.S. President Donald Trump's push for global tariffs, could paradoxically benefit Bitcoin and the broader cryptocurrency market. He posits that the administration's apparent desire for a weaker U.S. dollar, even if it means challenging its status as the world's reserve currency, could play a significant role.

Referring to an April 7 speech of Steve Miran, chairman of the White House Council of Economic Advisers, who attacked the dollar's reserve status for generating "chronic currency distortions" and "unsustainable trade deficits" That have impacted US manufacturing, According to Hougan, a weaker dollar might benefit Bitcoin in both the short and long term.

In the short term, Hougan notes a historical correlation between dollar weakness and Bitcoin strength, citing the U.S. Dollar Index (DXY). He believes this pattern of "dollar down equals Bitcoin up" is likely to continue.

Looking ahead, Hougan believes that any disturbance in the global reserve currency system creates chances for alternative reserve assets like Bitcoin and gold.  He explains that governments and companies rely on the dollar for international trade due to its stability. If that stability is questioned, they will need to explore other options.

Hougan concludes that the world is likely transitioning from a single reserve currency system to a more fragmented one, where hard assets like Bitcoin and gold will play a more significant role than they currently do.

This stance from Bitwise aligns with recent reports of some countries, VanEck said that China and Russia, reportedly settling energy trades in Bitcoin as trade tensions increase. Furthermore, on April 9, President Trump announced a 90-day pause on most of his previously announced "reciprocal tariffs," maintaining a baseline 10% tariff on most countries, while imposing a significantly higher 125% tariff on China.

Crypto trader and analyst Will Clemente repeated this idea on X, claiming that "Bitcoin will be the fastest horse" to emerge from the current market downturn. He argues that Bitcoin is a pure reflection of liquidity and that economic uncertainty and deglobalization are, if anything, positive factors for the cryptocurrency.

Bitcoin has been moving up a lot recently; it has increased 7.5% in the past 24 hours to $81,700. This comes after a correction of approximately 32% from its January 2025 all-time high, which is within the typical range of pullbacks seen in previous bull market cycles.